The threat of a bitcoin below $30,000 is becoming clearer! – While the financial community would hope for an easing of inflation in the United States, the figures for the month of May had the effect of a cold shower. Indeed, they are unfortunately higher than the consensus of economists at 8.6% against 8.3%. And the least we can say is that it might not get better any time soon due to the price of WTI oil which is once again galloping above $120.
From this headwind, the Bitcoin (BTC) sees his bear run get bogged down. And all the more so since the last attempt at a technical rebound was aborted when these accursed economic statistics were published. This raises fears that a new bloodbath below the $30,000 support may be closer than we thought. With the very idea of a new black sequence weekly which would capitulate the last hopes of the buyers.
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The $30,000 support on the razor’s edge
If Bitcoin was able to end its black series of nine consecutive weeks of decline, it fails to move beyond the $30,000 support. In addition to stronger than expected US inflation figures, the last four weekly candles following the collapse of the stablecoin UST the week of last May 12, show a lack of conviction, and more particularly from buyers. Because on the other side, sellers remain comfortably seated on their potential capital gains as long as there are no signs of a major technical rebound.
Besides, barring a leading catalyst that would remove all major risks in the financial markets, sellers don’t even have to worry about it in the medium-long term due to BTC’s precarious price position against the curves. of the ichimoku. As usual since the week of May 12, the status quo dominates with BTC prices and the Chikou Span threatening the $30,000 support. On the other hand, the future evolution of the Kumo over the next few weeks offers a less than rosy prospect regarding a favorable trend reversal.
Considering how things are pinned in weekly units, the scales would rather tip down. In this case, Bitcoin could return to its lows of the year, i.e. the support of $25,000. But in the presence of new sources of stress in the financial markets, we would open the door to a new price bloodbath from the king of cryptos that no one really expected to end.
Bitcoin – Rebound attempts still unsuccessful until proven otherwise
Inevitably, the last four weekly candles have logically resulted in a mini tidy or small horizontal channel (blue rectangle) in daily units. Especially since Bitcoin prices are struggling to extricate themselves from this neutral configuration despite attempts to rebound. To make matters worse, they also deviate from the lower limit of the Kumo (cloud), which is now the Senkou Span A (SSA). What would make the task even more difficult in the event of exit by the bottom of this mini tidy. Because if this is the case, the king of cryptos could return to its lows of the year at first.
However, assuming BTC prices manage to re-enter Kumo, Bitcoin should face major pillars of its bear run such as the major resistances at $35,000 and $38,000 and the descending line. And even a crossing of the latter would not be enough to glimpse a favorable trend reversal in the medium to long term.
In summary, it would appear that hopes for a technical BTC price rebound are melting like snow in the sun. Not only that, the $30,000 support remains under high tension. But the heart is not there on the buyers’ side following the US inflation in May which shows no signs of losing momentum on the downside.
And in a well-established bear run for almost a month, the king of cryptos would be vulnerable in the event of new episodes of stress. Especially since recent elements are not in its favour, such as its high correlation with equity indices and the monetary tightening by central banks, which will accelerate over the coming months.
In terms of avoiding a new bloodbath, Bitcoin would have to not break the $25,000 support or risk returning to end-of-year 2020-first quarter 2021 levels, and more particularly on the $20,000. In which case, a phase of capitulation would be in full swing. And in the event that the current uncertainties in the financial markets ease somewhat, a technical bounce would still be on the ropes, but its potential would remain chart-limited until proven otherwise.
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