Long live Delta! Bitcoin (BTC) price starts the last week of June 2022, stuck around $20,000. Traders and analysts are still focusing on the bottom price of this cycle.
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Bitcoin Price Below $21,000: Still Just Over $4,000 for Bears?
The price of bitcoin loses the $21,000 today, June 27, 2022, after closing four successive days above this level. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $20,923. Markets are entitled to a daily doji.
Traders and analysts continue to speculate on the price floor of this bearish phase. To this end, can they then use historical data to establish their forecasts? Or given the specifics of this bear market, should they then deviate from these models ?
Trader Rekt Capital pointed out that, for the first timethe price of Bitcoin closed for the third time in a row below the 200-week simple moving average.
In view of this peculiaritymarkets should therefore take with a grain of salt, forecasts using data from previous bear markets.
One of these perspectives is based on the fluctuations of the price of Bitcoin, depending on the volume of purchase.
Specifically, trader Rekt Capital drew attention to last week’s Bitcoin buying volume. This volume is similar to the 2018 bear market low at the 200-week moving average.
At the time, however, it had preceded an additional drop of 20%. According to Rekt Capital, if this scenario were repeated, the floor price would then be around $16,400.
A look in the rearview mirror: a very unlikely return to $14,000?
In its June 27, 2022 The Week Onchain Newsletter, Glassnode also looked at possible Bitcoin price floors.
He then returned to the models making it possible to determine this bottombased on data from 2015, 2018 and March 2020. Glassnode thus identified five possible price floors for bitcoin :
- the Mayer multiple of 0.6 at $23,380: this level is 40% below the 200-day moving average. The price of Bitcoin only closed at or below this price on 3.4% of the cryptocurrency’s trading days.
- the price realized at $22,500: Bitcoin price only closed below this level for 14% of its trading days.
- the 200-week moving average at $22,390: the price of the cryptocurrency only closed below this level for 1% of its trading days.
- the equilibrium price at $17,980: the price of Bitcoin only closed below this level for 3% of its trading days.
- the Delta price at $15,750 : the price of Bitcoin has never closed below this level. The latter provides final support for the cryptocurrency during bear market.
Looking more closely at the previous assumptions, where will the bottom price of this cycle be? During this bear market, the price of Bitcoin has already traded below all of these levels except the Delta price.
What conclusions can traders and analysts draw then? The current floor price of the cryptocurrency price would therefore be:
- i.e. at the local low reached on June 18, 2022, below $18,000. This low is slightly below the equilibrium price;
- i.e. between the Delta price at $15,750 and this current local lowin case of other more significant declines in the coming days.
The key levels are becoming clearer. The following days will tell whether Bitcoin will conquer its price floor, or prepare for an assault of $30,000.
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