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Bitcoin on July 9, 2022 – Finally a truce in the bear run?

A fanfare awakening to come? – In the wake of the latest employment figures in the United States, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently posting one of its best weeks since the end of March. So much so that we could imagine that the bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 could finally begin a welcome truce. After fear in winter, then panic in spring, capitulation could wait.

While the latest technical analysis points to a few technical signals indicating a gradual loss of momentum in the downside pressure, the next week would prove crucial in the short term. Moreover, the historic seasonality of the king of cryptos in July is timely, because it is often a good omen. A configuration that would legitimize a technical rebound that many investors are particularly watching.

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Bitcoin in weekly units – Finally a solid week?

The bullish weeks can be counted on the fingers of one hand in 2022. But since the last failure under the resistance of $46,000, the current one remains the best of all. At least… at the time of writing. And to add a small dose of hope, the bullish candle that is taking shape seems to be on track to encompass the previous one, resulting in a weekly close down. From there to suppose that we will be facing a bullish engulfing configuration? The weekend will tell us more.

As with previous weeks, we are not going to dwell on the status quo around the price positioning of BTC and the Chikou Span against the Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud). The weekly chart above is more than enough to see that these are two major technical signals to maintain the current bear run. Not to mention that the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) and downline will continue to represent strong headwinds.

That being said, some tentative reasons for optimism remain. First, the Chikou Span is once again bouncing off the $20,000 support. Second, the fact that the Tenkan is descending more quickly towards $26,000, causes a rapprochement with Bitcoin prices. This would suggest that the excess downside would be largely filled. A return of the king of cryptos in contact with the Tenkan would thus potentially lead us towards the resistance of $26,000 at first.

Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices Beyond Tenkan and Kijun?

After having once again threatened the $20,000 support, Bitcoin is reinvigorating beyond this critical level. Especially since prices could be about to break through the Tenkan and Kijun in daily units. A passage above the resistance of $22,000 would validate a double bottom, a reversal chart pattern after a bearish movement. At the same time, the Chikou Span would do the same with a prior lag of 26 days.

Bitcoin price analysis in daily units - July 09, 2022

In the event that BTC prices clear $22,000, the long-awaited technical rebound could – finally ! – materialize. Not only would the resistance of $26,000 only be an intermediate step. But above all, the king of cryptos could return inside the Kumo, and why not go up towards the resistance of $30,000, one of the key levels of the last bull run. Enough to afford a large-scale technical rebound which will however have to be put into perspective after a drop of around 75% since its last ATH in November 2021.

Despite scorching activity over the past few weeks, Bitcoin’s bear run may finally be coming to an end. More than a relief, we will rather see a rebalancing of the current risks on the financial markets. And perhaps a sign that the second bearish wave since breaking below the $46,000 resistance was decidedly excessive.

Especially since the chart situation in daily units seems to be starting to calm down. On the sine qua non condition that prices momentarily move away from the threat below the support of $20,000, the validation of a double bottom could see the light of day.

If, fortunately, Bitcoin is moving forward again, as indicated by the latest technical analyses, I fear however that the rebounds will be quick to be sold in a bear run that is far from being called into question. In which case, the sellers would prepare the capitulation, the last last stand for even lower BTC prices. Hence the unthinkable scenario of $12,000 mentioned briefly last week.

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