bloody quarter – What conclusions can we draw from the evolution of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) for this month of June 2022? Will the key indicators to watch in the very short term, but also the macro environment, tip the scales in favor of the bulls or the bears for the coming weeks?
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Bitcoin Price at $20,000: June Bleed, Strengthening of Support
Bitcoin price falls up to around $19,885 on Bitfinex today, June 29, 2022, before winning back the $20,000. The cryptocurrency is trading at $20,200 at the time of writing, while markets are currently in a daily doji.
Bitcoin is one day away from the close of June 2022, a month that will certainly draw the third consecutive bearish monthly candlestick since April 2022.
Cryptocurrency has suffered a loss of more than 55% during this second quarter of 2022. The losses currently recorded for this month of June amount to just over 36%, the highest level for this year 2022.
For the on-chain analysis platform Material Indicators, in the very short term “the bulls are defending the 2017 peak”, just below $20,000. Material Indicators further provides “ a break or collapse very soon “.
Bullish or bearish breakout: will the recovery come from central banks?
The difficulties faced by major crypto companies like Celsius gave wings to the bears, which managed to bring the price of Bitcoin back below $18,000 on June 18, 2022.
However, the macro environment presents encouraging signs for bullswith a US Federal Reserve announcing that quantitative tightening will not bring its balance sheet back to pre-pandemic levels.
The other good news for the bulls comes from the words of European Central Bank Director Christine Lagarde during a press conference held as part of the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Christine Lagarde admitted she doubted ‘we’ll be back in this period of low inflation “. The remarks of the President of the FED, Jerome Powell, echo these remarks of the director of the ECB.
Jerome Powell reiterated the institution’s objective of 2% inflation. But while he indicated that the Fed could “make it happen”, he also pointed to the fact that there is “no no guarantee that we can make it “.
These confessions or half-confessions of failure as to any attempt to drastically reduce inflation, should benefit risky assets on paper:
- at best, these assets can feed on it to structurally resume the upward path;
- at worst, announcements of rate increases by the FED will henceforth exert relatively less downward pressure on the value of these assets.
Are the bulls now strong enough to effectively defend the 2017 all-time high of just under $20,000? The floor price model designed based on historical data, shows that the price of Bitcoin has touched all possible lows of a bearish phase, except for ultimate support.
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