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Covid: “The epidemic is here to stay”… the 5 scenarios to fear according to the European health agency

The scenarios and associated public health intervention priorities established by ECDC at the end of this summer 2022 provide a potential framework for future scenarios with the aim of defining global strategic objectives and anti-Covid-19 management actions, under several possible scenarios.

“SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, given continued high levels of viral circulation and the possibility of new variants of concern”these are the conclusions made by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in a report released on Monday 29 August on the possible evolution of the epidemic in the European Union.

It is a roadmap, like a Covid-19 white paper to establish scenarios but above all responses to the coronavirus epidemic. A kind of continuity which takes into account the foreseeable epidemiological context in the European Union from the summer of 2022.

5 scenarios have therefore been drawn up by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the European Union agency established in 2005, whose mission is to strengthen Europe’s defenses against infectious diseases, based in Stockholm, Sweden.

Covid 19: Scenarios August 2022 by Journal L’Indépendant on Scribd

Scenarios that range from diminished threat (scenario 1) to a new pandemic synonymous with probable new restrictive measures (scenario 5). Between these two situations, the European agency establishes three transitional periods with a “normal” reinfection scenario(2)that is to say contained; a difficult winter scenario (3) with new variants emerging and declining immunity. A notch above is the situation of a “critical winter” (4) that could endanger hospital care systems. Last level before the worst-case scenario and the arrival of a new pandemic (5).

The 5 scenarios established by the ECDC, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
Screenshot @ECDC

“The wide range presented in this document reminds us that there is still much to do to strengthen European and global health security in the face of Covid19 and future pandemics”says the ECDC.

Also according to the ECDC, it is quite likely that there could be a transition from one scenario to another, due to changes in the virus, the level of immunity of the population or variations in the response. societal. The coming years will require extreme vigilance in the event of the appearance of new, more severe or more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2.

According to the ECDC, the public health protocols described in this document should also be taken into account in the preparation of potential future scenarios. As a priority, surveillance, risk communication, pandemic preparedness, early warning, vaccination, medical countermeasures and all associated measures, must remain maintained at high alert levels because the risk of he resumption of the epidemic forces the authorities to remain vigilant.

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