Friday, November 25, 2022
HomeCryptoMacro Hebdo update: US stocks rebound, Bitcoin does not follow...

Macro Hebdo update: US stocks rebound, Bitcoin does not follow…

In Slow Motion… – After experiencing a short period below $20,000, Bitcoin is stabilizing above this critical zone. Despite the number of indicators on chain and techniques that show Bitcoin is in an interesting zone, players are not rushing to buy. Altcoins are taking the opportunity to rebound and recover a few percent after losing more than 90% for the majority. Summer is coming and altcoins could take advantage of this calm period to continue recovering a few percent. If the macroeconomy does not improve, if inflation continues to rise, the market risks continuing to fall. Let’s look at the significant levels of risky assets like Bitcoin and US stocks. Are there signs of a return of capital to these risky assets?

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Bitcoin stabilizes above $20,000

the king of cryptocurrencies broods, after experiencing an ATH at $69,000he fell under $20,000 :

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

The trend is clearly bearish on this asset. As we can see, the structures are bearish and the price is below the two bearish trendlines. It will have to get rid of it to regain buying power. Currently, the price is blocked at the level of the resistance at about $20,500.

The current rebound was made on a fragile structure in “V-bottom”. It is not excluded that the price could again come back close to the low at $17,600 in an attempt to reverse the trend. If the rebound continues, the next resistance is at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) to $23,300. A second objective would then be the resistance at $28,500 which is in the shorts reload zone (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement).

The momentum described by the RSI indicator indicates a rebound in the oversold zone. For the moment, the momentum remains fragile, it will be necessary to follow the RSI in the event of a fall to see if a divergence appears.

Bitcoin only shows so far no signs of a trend reversal. It will probably take several weeks or even months to change this downtrend.

Slowing Gold and Dollar: A Good Sign for Bitcoin?

Gold still below resistance at $1,870

Gold is still stuck at resistance at $1,870 in the equity market.
Price of gold against the dollar (1W)

Last week, we mentioned the fact that gold was stuck at the first stop at $1,870 and it always is. Gold could change momentum on a weekly basis by closing above the resistance.

For Bitcoin and risky assets in general, it would be better if gold continued to stagnate or else fell below $1,790. This would show that capital is leaving safe-haven assets and could flow into risky assets. We will have to pay attention to this in the coming weeks. The RSI does not give much clues at the moment.

The dollar in decline?

The dollar index shows divergence.
Dollar index chart (1D)

The dynamics of the dollar index is still bullish daily. For risky assets like Bitcoin or US stocks, the dollar would have to lose strength and change momentum on a daily and then weekly basis.

RSI momentum is showing divergence and we would have to keep pushing on the sell side to get below 40 of RSI. For the moment, buyers are losing momentum, but sellers still need to come forward.

The stock market is rebounding!

We talked about it in the previous edition, the US market could start to set up a range. After a nice rebound, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are in a zone of resistance.

The S&P 500 could start to form a range

The S&P 500 is already at the resistance level.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (1D)

The S&P 500 is currently around the resistance at $3,900. In view of the trend displayed on a daily and weekly basis, there is a good chance that the price will be dismiss here and that it joins the lowest or even the bracket at $3,500.

If buyers manage to extricate themselves from the resistancethe next one is at $4,170. The probabilities point to a fall in the index, but the markets are not always rational. The momentum proves again bearish and it is currently at the level of the bearish trendline. This could serve as resistance a new time. We will have to wait to break this downward trendline to find a real buying force.

A tidy could begin to form between $3,900 and $3,500. We’ll see if it forms in the coming weeks…

Coinbase, end of the downtrend?

The trend of this asset is strongly bearish since the end of 2021. A change in dynamic would show institutional interest in cryptocurrencies :

Coinbase could change momentum on a daily basis.
Coinbase price against the dollar (1D)

Coinbase seems to find a support near $50. The trend could change in the event of a close above $83. If this scenario occurs, the first resistance it is located at $155a resistance that is located at the shorts reload zone.

The momentum may be returning bullish after several months of decline. The RSI attempts a breakout of the bearish trendline, we must now confirm. Sellers seem to be losing momentum, buyers need to take advantage of this.

The NASDAQ on resistance, like the S&P 500

The NASDAQ is at significant resistance.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (1D)

Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ evolves at the level of its resistance at $12,200. The probabilities show a probable rejection which could bring the course to the level of bracket at $11,000. If the buyers manage to break through the resistance, the next one is at $13,000.

It is interesting to note that momentum is contracting sharply. Indeed, the RSI no longer manages to make peaks higher than the previous ones, nor troughs, lower than the previous ones. The output of the contraction could bring volatility. At this stage, impossible to know the direction.

Bitcoin seems to decouple from US equities. While we expected a powerful BTC in the face of growing inflation, it has clearly been negatively impacted for a few months. The US market rebounds, but Bitcoin does not follow. The bottom structure remains fragile, it is not impossible to review the Bitcoin under $20,000 to try to change the dynamic. The dollar appears to be losing buying strength, but there is no sign that the bullish momentum is over.

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