Macro Weekly Update: stocks are sinking, Bitcoin ready for decorrelation?

Run for your life ! – Bitcoin closes the week of April 18 on a fourth week in the red below the psychological figure of $40,000. This is the first time since July 2020 that bitcoin has been in the red for four weeks. The equity market is struggling to recover, and so is gold. Assets risk on fall and risk-off also ? What is going on ? Let’s see what’s happening in the markets.

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Bitcoin shows encouraging signs on support

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

Bitcoin has found resistance toward $47,000 and seems to have found support at the level of $39,000. At the moment it is only a bounce on the stand. There is no structure close to the support which shows that the price is building a lower, higher than the previous one. Let’s wait to see if buyers are able toreverse initiated at the end of March.

RSI momentum is back in the hands of the buyers. The RSI will have to exceed 47.6 to confirm that buyers are indeed back here.

In weekly time unit, we see that Bitcoin is on a structure bullish (double bottom). On a daily basis, the course draws bottoms and rising tops for the moment. If Bitcoin manages to find a low point here, the bulls’ target will be a return on resistance at $47,000.

Risk off: gold falls and the dollar index rises?

Gold does not confirm?

Price of gold against the dollar (1D)

However, gold had managed to bounce off the support at $1,900 to find a peak higher than the previous one close to $2,000. Buyers will have to defend support one more time. The support also corresponds to the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). If the price closes below $1,890gold is likely to regain prices between $1,818 and $1,750 (recharging area).

The momentum is now clearly in the hands of the bears (sellers) since the breakout of the neutral zone (50 of RSI). The price could now continue its tidy Between $1,900 and $2,000 waiting for the price to show a direction. Technically, the advantage is with the buyers, but it is absolutely necessary to keep the support at $1,900.

The dollar index still does not weaken

The dollar index is on resistance but it is not weakening.
Dollar index chart (DXY) (1W)

The dollar index (DXY) still does not seem to be weakening. The DXY is on resistance and the momentum still does not weaken. For risky assets, the dollar would have to loses its strength. If we want to see Bitcoin and risky assets express themselves fully, the dollar must weekly trend change and head back towards the support.

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The stock market can’t do it?

The S&P 500 in the reload zone

The S&P 500 failed to hold support, it finds itself in the reload zone.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (1D)

Last week we were talking about the bulls defending support at $4,400but the course had to build a structure to make it official. The buyers failed to build a structure (W) and the support did not hold. The course is found in reloading area Between $4,380 and $4,260. It is an area where buyers need to take control. We expect a structure that will show that the price has found a low point.

The momentum has broke the bullish trendline installed since the end of January. The neutral zone resistedthe RSI will have to manage to keep the neutral zone (50 of RSI) to revive a healthy trend.

Coinbase: the downtrend continues

This is very bad news for the cryptocurrency industry. Coinbase stock does not find no buyer for the moment :

Coinbase in a downtrend since November 2021.
Coinbase share price against the dollar (1D)

Coinbase is not raising its head. On February 24, the exchange announced to good incomebut that does not seem sufficient for the actors at the moment T. There is no no signs of weakness on the sell side. Buyers do not defend any price.

We will have to be patient on this action and wait a rollover structure. The momentum is feverish, we see that the neutral zone is still resisting. We could have a divergence if the RSI manages to close above 60but the action looks good far from a trend reversal currently.

Marathon Digital Holdings falls and shows the way for Bitcoin?

Marathon Digital Holdings is a cryptocurrency-related stock. The two assets have a similar price, we can see it by comparing the two graphs:

Marathon Digital Holdings and Bitcoin have a significant correlation.
Marathon Digital Holdings (blue) and Bitcoin (orange) prices

As we can see, Bitcoin and Marathon Digital Holdings are two close assets From a technical point of view. However, there is a divergence (or a delay?) between these two assets. Marathon Digital Holdings has broke it support while Bitcoin keeps it for the time being. Is this a sell signal for Bitcoin? It is also possible that Bitcoin is in the process of decoupling from the equity market. The probabilities indicate that the two assets should quickly regain the same direction.

Can we think that Bitcoin is leading the way? Hard to say. We live in a complicated period and Bitcoin proves resilient. Bitcoin should be able to get out of its correlation closely with the stock market. Until proven otherwise, it is an asset considered as risk and it seems to keep on follow the stock market.

Assets risk on are struggling, as are most stocks. Coinbase fails to find buyers and Marathon Digital Holdings breaks a major level. Gold, which seemed on track to gain value, is back on support. The one asset that doesn’t seem to be slowing down is the dollar index. The dollar is currently very strong and it is to be hoped that it will weaken quickly. Bitcoin is resisting and trying to hold support. It remains technically to structure for the king of cryptocurrencies to try to break the resistance at $47,000. Can Bitcoin do it?

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