Analysis of BTC/USD from Wednesday with the traditional analysis summary on-chain of Glassnode, the good words of Michael Saylor and the announcement of a European Mica II bill by Christine Lagarde in person…
Glassnode Weekly Report Summary
GlassNode states in the introduction that bitcoin has “suffered from a massive reduction in leverage on which most of the last bull cycle was based”. This “deleveraging” is linked to the “the insolvency, illiquidity or liquidation of certain DeFi, hedge fund and exchange players”. “We are starting to see signals of surrender from a number of entities, including miners and holders. »
One of the metrics highlighted in the report is the Realized Loss “. This indicator shows the difference in value between when BTC was obtained and when it was sold. We reached an all-time high with sales at a loss representing an average of $2.4 billion per day:
GN then looked at the share of BTC showing an unrealized profit or loss. This metric averages the price of all BTC at the time it was last traded. It appears that on average, even holders term are now under water.
Overall, 51% of BTC was in an unrealized loss when BTC/USD fell to $17,600. Historically, GN notes that the bottom is reached when 55% to 60% of the BTC shows a latent loss.
Regarding the BTCs of holders long-term (more than 155 days), the latent loss concerns 35% of their BTC. The pain is less than in previous bear markets (between 42% and 51% of BTC lost).
the stack held by these holders in the long run has decreased by 178,000 BTC over the past week, which equates to 1.31% of the total.
GN, however, thinks it is likely that we have already reached a historically significant level of financial pain. The reason being that the loss of many BTCs forever blurs the statistics a bit.
Concerning the capitulation of the miners, GN was interested in the indicator called Hash-Ribbon. This metric combines the 30 and 60 day moving averages of the hashrate bitcoin to determine if miners have capitulated:
the hash ribbon actually shows that miners are currently turning off their devices. Some are even forced to sell some of their BTC stash.
GN reports that “ volumes of BTC leaving miner addresses [pour être vendus] vary between 5,000 and 8,000 BTC per month “. “This situation is now comparable to the capitulation of 2018-2019. »
Conclusion of the report:
“Investors have reached or are very close to historically high financial pain thresholds. Forced sales [parce qu’utilisant un effet de levier] seem to be driving much of the recent sales. We should therefore start to see signs of exhausting selling pressure in the weeks and months to come.”
The time for regulation has come
Certainly the Ponzian DeFi explosion, leveraged position liquidations, and the deflating of the NFT bubble and the like shitcoins useless has largely impacted bitcoin which is unfortunately associated in the collective consciousness with the rest of CrYpTo. We previously discussed the shitcoinesque ponzi schemes of this latest round.
The abuses and scams absolutely amazing from this last cycle will not leave the authorities unmoved. Financial police and legislators are now in a strong position to bring order to an “ecosystem” that has become a giant casino.
This is what Michael Saylor recommended yesterday at the microphone of Bloomberg. The latter gave a list of things that prevent bitcoin from reaching 10 trillion.
- The 520 exchanges not registered with the market authorities
- the wash trading
- Leverage 20x and more
- The 19,000 cryptocurrencies (which are “non-SEC registered securities”)
- Unregulated wannabe banks like Celsius (DeFi)
- Luna Terrorists
- Unregulated stablecoins
- The absence of spot ETFs
- The lack of accounting clarity that prevents banks from holding BTC
For the CEO of Microstrategy, these problems will not be solved in the next ten weeks, but in the next ten years:
“Bitcoin has been held back by its association with the ‘anything goes’ CrYpTo industry. The regulation of this market will be a green light for investment funds that can invest in bitcoin. This will be the catalyst for the next bull run”.
Let’s bet that stopping the delusional leverage effects for Binance users in France and Germany will reduce this monster volatility that is hindering the adoption of BTC by large institutions.
That being said, while the “bitcoin law” is in good hands in the US (Cynthia Lummis), it doesn’t seem to be in Europe. Indeed, Christine Lagarde came to put her grain of salt during her hearing with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.
She who said last month that cryptocurrencies “are worth nothing ” in the Nederlands. Which can be understood on the condition of not putting the bitcoin in the same bag as the shitcoins…
Let’s skip the fact that MEP Aurore Lalucq obligingly questioned Christine Lagarde on the impact of crypto-crashes on financial stability. It was especially interesting to see the President of the ECB take her ease and make recommendations on a new law (MICA II) which will specifically address bitcoin:
“Mica 2 should regulate issues of crypto-assets where there are no identifiable issuers, this is the case for bitcoin. »
Recall that the German Ministry of Finance recently opposed the ban on exchanges to transfer bitcoins to wallets as provided for in the MiCa I bill. This MICA II law will therefore very likely be an opportunity to come back to the issue of the “unhosted wallets”.
At the same time, Ms. Lagarde’s grand design is advancing. We want to talk about the CBDC. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) oversees the project by encouraging all central banks to work on this programmable “currency” which is already shaping up to be the most formidable totalitarian tool the world has ever known.
However, the BIS published this Thursday the part of its annual economic report whose title is: “CBDC, an opportunity for the monetary system”. We will soon make a summary of it on Cointribune.
In the meantime, note that the number of addresses holding at least 0.01 BTC has just reached 10 million, an all-time high.
Despite the shitcoinerie of the scammers and central banks, bitcoin will triumph over this umpteenth purge caused by delusional leverage. Its 21 million units of encrypted energy will make the whole world spin.
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Journalist reporting on the Bitcoin revolution. My papers deal with bitcoin through geopolitical, economic, and libertarian prisms.